February 9, 2008

NAR Hails Passage of Stimulus Bill

The NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® congratulated the U.S. Congress for quickly passing a national economic stimulus package and thanked President George W. Bush for his leadership and willingness to promptly enact legislation that will help thousands of families, the housing market, and the U.S. economy.

“We believe the economic stimulus bill that Congress sent to the president today is strong legislation that will quickly impact the nation’s families and economy,” said NAR President Richard Gaylord, a broker with RE/MAX Real Estate Specialists in Long Beach, Calif. “We are pleased that both the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) and the Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (GSE) loan limits have been increased, even if only temporarily. This will be a major stimulus for the housing industry and for people who want to own a home.”

Increasing FHA loan limits will help an additional 138,000 Americans achieve the dream of homeownership and will allow nearly 200,000 homeowners to refinance and potentially keep their home, according to NAR research. In addition, NAR believes that increasing the loan limits for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will bolster the severely stressed housing finance market by immediately infusing much needed liquidity into the nation’s mortgage market. “While such an increase will not solve the full range of housing challenges, it will play a vitally important role in improving the nation’s economy and making the dream of homeownership more attainable for thousands,” said Gaylord.

An economic impact study conducted by NAR earlier this month estimated that increasing the GSEs’ conforming loan limits would result in as many as 500,000 refinanced loans and could help reduce foreclosures by as much as 210,000. In addition, over 300,000 additional home sales could be generated, housing inventory would be reduced and home prices would be strengthened by two to three percentage points. “These are real results and will have an immediate and sustainable impact for families across our country,” said Gaylord.

Source: NAR

February 8, 2008

NAR: Existing home sales to hold in narrow range then trend upward

WASHINGTON – Feb. 7, 2008 – A continuation of soft market conditions is forecast for existing-home sales in the months ahead, with improvement expected by the second half of this year if loan limits are increased, according to the latest forecast by the National Association of Realtors® (NAR).

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, says sales activity is expected to remain soft through the first half of the year despite a generational low in mortgage interest rates. “Household formation was only half of what it should have been last year given the demographics of a growing population and sustained job growth, so there clearly is a pent-up demand from buyers who are on the sidelines,” he says. “Existing-home sales have moved narrowly since last September, but when the full impact of higher loan limits for conventional mortgages begins to impact the market there is likely to be a notable rise in home sales and prices. If higher limits are enacted very quickly, we’ll see a faster and more meaningful recovery by expanding safe, affordable financing in high-cost areas – that, in turn, would help to stimulate overall economic activity.”

The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in December, slipped 1.5 percent to a reading of 85.9 from a downwardly revised index of 87.2 in November, and was 24.2 percent below the December 2006 level of 113.3.

“We’re seeing a pattern that is consistent with skimming along the bottom of the cycle, and sales could ease modestly,” Yun says.

The PHSI in the Midwest rose 3.4 percent in December to 84.9 but is 17.3 percent below a year ago. In the Northeast, the index slipped 1.7 percent to 68.9 and is 26.0 percent lower than December 2006. The index in the South fell 3.0 percent in December to 96.4 and is 27.0 percent below a year ago. In the West, the index declined 3.1 percent in December to 83.9 and is 24.1 percent below December 2006.

Existing-home sales are projected at an annual pace of around 4.9 million in the first half of this year, rising notably to 5.8 million in the second half, and totaling 5.60 million for all of 2009. The aggregate existing-home price should decline 1.2 percent in 2008 to a median of $216,300, and then rise 3.2 percent to $223,200 in 2009.

“Areas with a high prevalence of subprime lending will continue to feel downward price pressure. Where builders have cut construction sharply, and in most areas with improving affordability conditions, we’ll generally see moderately higher home prices,” Yun says.

Current housing conditions vary widely. Preliminary data shows rising home prices in areas such as Rochester, N.Y.; Charleston, W.V.; Waterloo-Cedar Falls, Iowa; and Albuquerque, N.M. Fourth quarter metro area median existing-home prices, showing changes in approximately 150 markets, will be released February 14.

New-home sales are likely to decline 17.7 percent to 637,000 in 2008 before rising 7.6 percent to 685,000 in 2009. “Builders will further lower new home construction throughout this year and into 2009 to bring inventory under control,” Yun says. Housing starts, including multifamily units, are estimated to fall 20.1 percent to 1.08 million this year, and decline another 1.3 percent to 1.07 million in 2009. The median new-home price is expected to fall 4.3 percent to $236,300 in 2008, and then increase 5.0 percent in 2009.

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is forecast to rise slowly to the 5.9 percent range in the fourth quarter, and then average 6.3 percent in 2009. “Affordability conditions are anticipated to rise 14.2 percent this year, permitting more people to become homeowners, but buyers should avoid aggressive lenders and not over-stretch to enter the market,” Yun says. NAR’s housing affordability index is expected to rise from 113.0 in 2007 to 129.0 in 2008.

Growth in the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) is projected at 2.2 percent in 2008 and 2.7 percent in 2009. The unemployment rate should rise to 5.4 percent in the second half of 2008 before averaging 5.2 percent in 2009.

Inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, is seen at 2.7 percent this year and 1.4 percent in 2009. Inflation-adjusted disposable personal income is likely to grow 1.7 percent in 2008 and 3.5 percent next year.

© 2008 FLORIDA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

February 7, 2008

Latest Real Estate Statistics:

Source: Pinellas Realtor Organization

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January 31, 2008

Your Amendment 1 Tax Reduction:

Just Market Value - Assessed Value = Tax Equity

(If you do not have your Just Market & Assessed values readily available, contact us if you would like and we’ll get them to you promptly.)

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January 30, 2008

Amendment 1 Passes - Significant Tax Reform Fails

A quote we read and heard most often during the run-up to the vote was, "It’s better than nothing." In fact, nothing may have actually resulted in something...possibly the "significant property tax reform" promised us by our leaders in Tallahassee. Most likely, if the amendment failed, the Legislature would have been pressured to take another look at Florida’s inequitable tax structure. The spotlight of the media and the public on their deliberations may have caused a more sober, focused, and fair evaluation of our property taxes, resulting in the "significant property tax reform" they pledged.

Amendment 1 did give some benefits, but honestly, they were mostly small, and mostly to those whose tax bills were already artificially lower than the rest. Let us hope this was a tax reform start, and not a finish. Property tax relief is needed for all property owners: second home buyers, Snowbirds, investors, commercial property owners, and especially recent homebuyers who are paying substantially higher property taxes for the same size home as their next door neighbors. We all benefit from a fair tax system. And, significant reform should have a positive impact on both real estate sales and property appreciation.

It is still, however, prudent to harbor concern. We need to encourage, and may have to demand, our legislative leaders to rekindle efforts that will produce significant reform because Amendment 1 did not resolve the true core issues of our ailing tax system. It did not remove from Florida’s horizon the looming tax crisis. It is indeed real and we cannot ignore it, for it is strengthening and heading directly our way.

The Langrocks

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January 25, 2008

Daily Real Estate News  |  January 24, 2008

2007 Existing-home Sales Fifth Highest

Existing-home sales declined in December following several months of stable activity, with total sales in 2007 still at the fifth highest on record, according to the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®.

Existing-home sales - including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops - slipped 2.2 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.89 million units in December from a pace of 5 million in November, and are 22 percent below the 6.27 million-unit level in December 2006.

For all of 2007 there were 5,652,000 existing-home sales, the fifth highest year on record. However, the total was 12.8 percent below the 6,478,000 transactions recorded in 2006.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, says the market is experiencing uncharacteristic weakness.

"Home sales remain weak despite improved affordability conditions in many parts of the country, but we could get a quick boost to the market if loan limits are raised in combination with the bold cut in the Fed funds rate," he says. "Home prices are lower, mortgage interest rates continue to decline and incomes are higher, but many potential buyers are delaying a purchase."

According to Freddie Mac, the national average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage fell to 6.10 percent in December from 6.21 percent in November; the rate was 6.14 percent in December 2006. Last week, Freddie Mac reported the 30-year fixed rate dropped to 5.69 percent.

"Although interest rates on jumbo loans have fallen somewhat, they remain well above conventional mortgage rates," Yun says. "It isn’t surprising that the share of single-family homes selling for more than $500,000 fell to 12.4 percent of transactions in December from 14.2 percent a year ago."

A Closer Look

NAR research also revealed the following:

• Inventory: total housing inventory fell 7.4 percent at the end of December to 3.91 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 9.6-month supply at the current sales pace, down from a 10.1-month supply in November. "The fall in inventory in December is encouraging, but inventories remain elevated and buyers have a clear edge over sellers in many markets," Yun says.

• Prices: the national median existing-home price for all housing types was $208,400 in December, down 6 percent from a year earlier when the median was $221,600. Because home sales have slowed the most in higher cost markets, there is a downward distortion to the national median as the mix of closed sales has changed over the past year. For all of 2007, the median price was $218,900, down 1.4 percent from a median of $221,900 in 2006.

• Single family homes: sales declined 2.0 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.31 million in December from 4.40 million in November, and are 21.6 percent below 5.50 million-unit level in December 2006. In all of 2007, single-family sales fell 13.0 percent to 4.94 million. The median existing single-family home price was $206,500 in December, down 6.5 percent from a year earlier. For all of 2007, the single-family median was $217,800, down 1.8 percent from 2006.

• Condo and co-op sales: existing condominium and co-op sales fell 3.3 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 580,000 units in December from 600,000 in November, and are 24.5 percent below the 768,000-unit pace a year ago. Condo sales for all of 2007 fell 11.0 percent to 713,000 units. The median existing condo price was $222,200 last month, which is 2.5 percent below December 2006. In all of 2007, the median condo price was $226,400, up 2.0 percent from 2006.

NAR: Loan Limits Need Raised

NAR President Richard Gaylord says that raising the loan limit on conventional financing is the most effective way to stimulate housing and minimize the potential for a recession. He calls for lawmakers to raise the limit on conforming mortgages to $625,000, which would open safe and affordable financing to buyers in high-cost areas.

"It is grossly unfair that some Americans do not have access to low-interest rate loans," Gaylord says. "This would help people as they move away from risky subprime mortgages and high-interest rate jumbo loans."

NAR projects the higher loan limit would increase annual home sales by nearly 350,000, reduce foreclosures by 140,000 to 210,000, and increase economic activity by $44 billion. “What’s more, this would come at no cost to taxpayers – it’s a policy change that could really boost the economy,” Gaylord says.

Other projections of NAR’s analysis show raising the loan limit would reduce the supply of homes on the market by 1 to 1.5 months, and strengthen home prices by 2 to 3 percentage points. In addition, as many as 500,000 jumbo loans would be refinanced to lower interest rates.

Gaylord says current housing conditions vary widely.

"Many local areas continue to have healthy or improving local housing markets," he says. "For example, we saw higher home sales last month in diverse areas such as San Antonio; Syracuse; Springfield, Ill.; and Sarasota, Fla. If you’re thinking about getting into the market as a buyer or a seller, consult a Realtor® to learn about conditions in your area - they may be considerably different from the composite national picture."


- REALTOR Magazine

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January 9, 2008

Latest Real Estate Statistics:

Source: Pinellas Realtor Organization

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December 30, 2007

St. Petersburg Times editorial on Amendment 1:
http://www.sptimes.com/2007/12/30/Opinion/Property_tax_measure_.shtml

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December 28, 2007

Significant Property Tax Reform Alternative
by The Langrocks

The recent boom years of real estate brought us wonderful appreciation along with excessively high property tax bills. Our elected leaders in Tallahassee acknowledged the property tax crisis and promised, "significant property tax reform". Unfortunately, we feel their proposed tax reform amendment on the January 29th ballot falls far short of significant tax reform for the following reasons:

The "doubling" of the homestead exemption to $50,000 is not completely forthcoming in that the school property taxes are excluded. They account for roughly 40% of each property tax bill. That makes the "additional $25,000 exemption" actually only a $15,000 exemption meaning the significant relief is about $240 a year, or $20 a month. As for Portability, it allows homeowners to take with them to a new home their accrued Cap benefit. This savings is subsidized, however, by other homesteaded property owners, and more so by: recent home buyers, owners of second homes, vacation homes, investment properties, and business property owners. The $25,000 exemption on tangible personal property is a small benefit for businesses which will also be subsidized but by all property owners. The same goes for the 10% cap on non-homesteaded property which is basically a non-benefit since the cap is so high, it will be quite rare to reach the threshold.

Certainly some relief is better than no relief but these are merely tweaks of relief that avoid the root cause of our property tax crisis. It is a fact that the problem is not the doubling of tax revenue which now flows into government coffers since 2000 rather it’s the government spending of this entire windfall. If this is addressed in a thoughtful, fair manner, property taxes will surely be lower while still maintaining important services.

A comprehensive solution may not be far off. A grass roots citizen driven constitutional amendment is at hand. While it may not be perfect, it does target the core problem of the property tax crisis.

If you would like to learn more, view the video below; it addresses significant property tax reform. Then do the math to discover your new property tax. If you think it is fair and comprehensive tax reform, and desire to help make it become a reality, simply sign the petition that will offer up for a vote this citizens’ initiative for a significant property tax reform amendment. It’s a long shot but…. Whatever you decide, you’ll be more educated and more focused for fair and true property tax reform.

Assessed Value - $25,000 (Homestead Exemption) x 1.35% = New Property Tax

- If you would like to know your assessed value, contact us and we’ll look it up for you -

CUT PROPERTY TAXES NOW RELEASES YOUTUBE VIDEO Historic YouTube Video Offers Solution on Property Tax Reform The 1.35% property Tax Cap www.youtube.com/cutpropertytaxesnow www.cutpropertytaxesnow.com (please forward)

St Petersburg, Fl - December 11, 2007 - Today, Cut Property Taxes Now announced that it has joined forces with Blaise Ingoglia, who has put on numerous government waste seminars in Hernando County, to produce a YouTube video designed to inform residents of it’s citizen’s initiative to amend Florida ’s constitution. The grassroots organization is proposing to limit the amount of taxes collected on real property to 1.35% of the taxable value. Speaker of the House Marco Rubio, who has been a leader in pushing for property tax reform, has supported this citizens’ initiative to cap property taxes at 1.35% of taxable value

The video, which was produced in Hernando County by Instant Images, highlights the current state of the economy; the proposed constitutional amendment; examples of tax savings; and the steps needed to make sure there is "significant" tax relief for everyone. The organization plans to tap into the power of the internet to disseminate its’ message quickly and efficiently in order to meet the required 611,009 petitions needed to place the proposed constitutional amendment on the November 2008 ballot.

Blaise Ingoglia, who is the Chief Executive Officer of Hartland Homes, Inc, a homebuilder in Spring Hill, produced government waste seminars in the weeks prior to the final budget hearings in Hernando County. These seminars, with the help of Hernando Tax Payers Alliance, produced record turnouts at both the preliminary and final budget hearings. The efforts forced the County Commissioners to cut the budget an extra $6 million over and above that which was required by the State Legislature.

Residents are urged to visit http://www.youtube.com/cutpropertytaxesnow. You may need to register with YouTube. It is free and only requires an e-mail and a password. Residents are also urged to visit www.cutpropertytaxesnow.com for more information.

Paid political advertisement paid for by Cut Property Taxes Now, Inc. 610 South Boulevard, Suite 100 , Tampa , FL 33606

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December 12, 2007

Latest Real Estate Statistics:

Source: Pinellas Realtor Organization

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December 11, 2007

NAR: Worst is over - existing-home sales to trend up in 2008

WASHINGTON - Dec. 11, 2007 - Existing-home sales are projected to trend up in 2008, with pending home sales showing a slight near-term rise, according to the latest forecast by the National Association of Realtors® (NAR). However, a recovery for new-home sales is unlikely before 2009.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, says the worst part of the credit crunch has already worked its way through the data. "The unusual mortgage disruptions that peaked in August were clearly seen in lower home sales that were finalized in September and October, so the market was underperforming," he says. "Now that mortgage conditions have improved, some postponed activity should turn up in existing-home sales over the next couple of months, and I expect sales at fairly stable to slightly higher levels."

The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI), a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in October, increased 0.6 percent to an index of 87.2 from an upwardly revised reading of 86.7 in September. It was the second consecutive monthly gain, but still 18.4 percent below the October 2006 index of 106.8. "The broad trend over the coming year will be a gradual rise in existing-home sales, but because sales are exceptionally low in the final months of 2007, total sales for 2008 will be only modestly higher than 2007," Yun says.

The PHSI in the Northeast jumped 16.0 percent in October to 80.6 but is 11.1 percent below a year ago. In the West, the index rose 8.4 percent to 87.3 but is 16.9 percent lower than October 2006. The index in the Midwest slipped 1.4 percent in October to 85.5 and is 11.7 percent below a year ago. In the South, the index dropped 7.8 percent in October to 91.6 and is 25.3 percent below October 2006.

"The improvement in the Northeast reaffirms a trend apparent for some months now that shows signs of recovery, noteworthy because that was the first region to slump, and the gain in the West indicates some easing of interest rates for jumbo loans," Yun says. "Lawmakers need to understand that raising the loan limits on FHA and GSE-backed conventional loans will markedly improve mortgage availability."

Existing-home sales are likely to total 5.67 million this year, the fifth highest on record, rising to 5.70 million in 2008, in contrast with 6.48 million in 2006. Existing-home prices should be down 1.9 percent to a median of $217,600 for all of 2007, and then rise 0.3 percent to $218,300 in 2008.

"Home price growth in the vast affordable midsection of America will help raise the national median existing-home price slightly in 2008. I then expect price appreciation to return to more normal patterns in 2009, perhaps rising one or two percentage points above the rate of inflation," Yun says.

"Even with a modest decline in the national aggregate price this year, it’s important to keep in mind that nearly two-thirds of the metro areas in the U.S. are showing price increases," he said. "The apparent disparity results from fewer sales in high-cost markets, so a change in the mix of sales is dragging down the national median home price."

Areas showing healthy price gains include disparate markets such as Gary-Hammond, Ind.; Binghamton, N.Y.; Corpus Christi, Texas; and Spokane, Wash. "We can’t emphasis enough how much local conditions vary, even within a given area, so it’s important for consumers to make decisions based on local market conditions."

New-home sales are forecast at 788,000 this year and 693,000 in 2008, down from 1.05 million in 2006; no sustained improvement is seen for new homes until 2009. Because builders have correctly adjusted production, housing starts, including multifamily units, will probably total 1.36 million this year and 1.16 million in 2008, down from 1.80 million last year. The median new-home price is projected to drop 3.0 percent to $239,100 for 2007, and then decline another 0.2 percent to $236,600 in 2008.

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is estimated to rise slowly to the 6.4 percent range by the end of 2008, with additional cuts in the Fed funds rate lowering short-term interest rates.

Growth in the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) should be 2.1 percent in 2007, down from a 2.9 percent growth rate last year; GDP growth is forecast to improve to 2.4 percent in 2008.

The unemployment rate is likely to average 4.6 percent for 2007, unchanged from last year, but rise to 5.0 percent in 2008. Inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, will probably be 2.8 percent this year and 2.7 percent in 2008, down from 3.2 percent in 2006. Inflation-adjusted disposable personal income is estimated to grow 3.1 percent this year, the same as in 2006, and then grow 2.2 percent next year.

© 2007 FLORIDA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

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November 10, 2007

Latest Real Estate Statistics:

Source: Pinellas Realtor Organization

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November 8, 2007

Below is the latest market information from the National Association of Realtors for your perusal:

The Long View 11/8/07
by Lawrence Yun, Vice President, NAR Research

“How much have real estate investors lost due to the housing market bust?”

That was the (highly loaded) question posed to me recently by a producer of one of the major evening news programs. The show wanted to run a story about the "pains" being felt in the market.

Hmm. Well, exactly how much real pain are we talking about? Let's look at a couple of examples. An investor who bought a property in Las Vegas five years ago would be ahead by $150,000; up $200,000 in Miami. The average investor nationwide – up $54,000. Only the recent buyers (flippers) who bought last year in few specific markets would have encountered a loss.

Not All Losses Are Created Equal
I’m not discounting the discomfort of those who lost big, especially lenders and hedge funds who had large exposures to subprime loans. Investors in homebuilder stocks have certainly experienced pains. But nearly all real estate investors who have a reasonable holding period are doing quite fine. Some of these fortunate buyers who got into the market several years ago will still consider a modest give back as a loss without considering the large gains reaped during the housing boom. That’s the nature of the human mind. A gain of $190,000 in Miami feels like a $10,000 loss considering that the gain had been $200,000.

A Home is Not a Stock Certificate -- Thank God!
Foreclosures are rising and construction workers are being laid off. REALTORS® are feeling the pinch as well. The median income of a typical REALTOR® has been falling due to the correction in sales transactions. However, consumers and homeowners who are in it for the long-term are once again coming out well ahead.

Because of the power of leveraging, $10,000 used for a down payment on a typically priced home in the United States at a typical appreciation rate of 5 percent will return $110,000 after 10 years. The same $10,000 invested in the stock market appreciating 10 percent annually will result in $23,600. No wonder the data from the Federal Reserve show consistent results year-after-year of the staggering difference in net worth between homeowners and renters. A typical homeowner had $184,400 in net worth versus only $4,000 for a typical renter.

The Spooky Thing
The lack of buyer confidence to enter the market has been the one principal reason in holding back home sales. Many would-be buyers are spooked of a possible home price decline. And the media is fueling that fear. Some of the most popular market gurus who offer their advice on television and other media say so. Caution is in order, however. As a recent Barron’s article pointed out, stock picks made by one such expert actually underperformed the market.

Opportunities to Seize
It’s also important to point out that times of crisis often turn out to have been times of opportunity in hindsight. With over four million net new job additions in the past two years– the time frame during which home sales have steadily fallen – a significant pent-up demand has developed. Home sales and home prices will be higher in 2008 compared to 2007. And, as with any investment, look longer term. Those investing in a home and keeping it for a typical holding period of six to ten years will likely see their investment pay off; those homes will have been a good investment.

As for stocks, they are not the enemy of real estate. Many REALTORS® own stocks. (So do many economists!) The latest NAR research on vacation-home buyers reveals that many of them rely on stock market wealth to fund that second-home purchase. Stocks and real estate both promote the importance of private ownership.

Where to Throw the Darts
Of course, with housing figures down, all eyes at looking to the stock market. Indeed, the stock market is at an all-time high. That's terrific in and of itself and reflects confidence in the U.S. economic outlook. Just be careful about taking specific advice from any hyper-emotional TV personality. Darts should not be thrown at publicity posters of any "mad money" host. You’ll likely have just as good of luck by reining in your emotions (and money) and throwing them randomly on the financial pages of your newspaper for your next stock pickings.

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October 10, 2007

Latest Real Estate Statistics:

Source: Pinellas Realtor Organization

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October 1, 2007

We believe a good attitude is essential to our business relationships as well as a healthy life and world. Everyone benefits from a good attitude.

Attitude
“The longer I live, the more I realize the impact of attitude on life. Attitude, to me, is more important than past, than education, than money, than circumstances, than failure, than successes, than what people think or say or do. It is more important than appearance, giftedness or skill. It will make or break a company...a church...a home. The remarkable thing is we have a choice every day regarding the attitude we will embrace for that day. We cannot change our past...we cannot change the fact that people will act in a certain way. We cannot change the inevitable. The only thing we can do is play on the one string we have, and that is our attitude.... I am convinced that life is 10% what happens to me and 90% of how I react to it. And so it is with you...we are in charge of our attitudes.” -Anonymous

Hope you enjoy!

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September 12, 2007

Current Market Conditions - As we see it:

Everyone is aware of the challenging real estate market both nationally and locally. But did you know that here in Pinellas County we may be in for a change? A change for the better? We believe so, and here’s why.

The two main culprits have been too many listings and too few buyers. There are multiple opinions as to why but there is no escaping the stunning fact that Pinellas County began 2007 the same way it slogged through the forth quarter of ‘06, i.e., a record number of listings hovering around 10,000 to 11,000. In April, however, listings finally did drop significantly from the previous month (8%) and has continued to hold steady in the lower 9,000 range (August: 9141 - see Listings Chart). This five month correction may be the long awaited market turnaround albeit slow one. While we do not expect a return to the white-hot, “Golden Days of Real Estate” – five record years in a row from 2001 to 2005 - we do expect a more balanced market if two more events take place: buyers begin even a modest return this fall, and the vote for a Super Homestead Exemption passes in January ‘08. Add these to the legislator’s Tax Reform plus two year rates freeze on our state run Citizens Property Insurance, and at long last it may generate some good press from the newspapers and other media. That in turn will nudge more buyers into the market. May the momentum begin! That’s the way we see it.

Choose your formula:

LL + GP = B (Less Listings + Good Press = Buyers)
Or simply…B = S (Buyers = Sales)

Latest Real Estate Statistics:

Source: Pinellas Realtor Organization

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August 25, 2007

Your House as Seen By:
You...
Your Lender...
Your Buyer...
Your Appraiser...
Your TAX ASSESSOR...

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August 12, 2007

Latest Real Estate Statistics:

Source: Pinellas Realtor Organization

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July 11, 2007

Latest Real Estate Statistics:

Source: Pinellas Realtor Organization

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June 15, 2007

Insurance: Govenor Charlie Crist signed into law a two year rates freeze on state run Citizen Property Insurance. This will encourage other insurance companies to be more competitive.

Taxes: The legislator quickly completed the long awaited June special session addressing property tax relief with a pincer approach. Help is on the way! The following is an overview best articulated by the Florida Association of Realtors:

Special Session on Property Tax Reform

Both the House and Senate passed three bills making up the property tax reform package.

The package includes:

1. a statutory rollback and cap of property tax rates,
2. a proposed constitutional amendment creating a "super homestead exemption" and
3. a bill designating the upcoming January 29, 2008 presidential preference primary as the date for Floridians to vote on the "super homestead exemption" amendment. FAR is very excited about the work that the Florida Legislature was able to complete in 3 short days!

The agreement consists of a two-tiered approach to achieve immediate relief and long-term reform. The combined elements of the plan offer $31.6 billion in tax relief over the next five years -- touted as by far the largest tax cut in the history of Florida.

1. The Statutory Component - Immediate Tax Relief

Cities and counties must lower their tax rates a certain percentage based on their past taxing conduct. This component of the plan offers $15.6 billion of tax relief over five years, with savings beginning this year. The statutory component affects all properties (including homestead, non homestead, commercial) in a postive manner.

• First, all cities and counties must adopt the rolled-back rate for the coming fiscal year. In other words, tax levies for FY 2007-08 must be equal to tax levies for FY 2006-07, excluding taxes levied from new construction. Then:
• After adopting the rolled-back rate, the bill requires each city and county to further reduce taxes based on their recent taxing history (from 2001 to 2006, the period in which property values rapidly increased). To delve into this further, there will be five tiers. Between 2001 and 2006, if a County had an average annual tax levy increase of a certain percentage then they'd have to roll back a certain percentage more. So, if their tax increase was below 5% the cut is 0; over 5 to 7% tax increase the cut is additional 3%; over 7 to 9% tax increase the cut is 5%; over 9% to 11% the cut is 7%; and over 11% tax increase the cut is an additional 9%. The City cuts are similar. The bottom line is that those counties and cities that increased taxes at a faster rate than the statewide average must offer larger tax cuts. Those that modestly increased tax levies will in turn sustain smaller tax cuts.
• Beginning in 2008-2009 and every year thereafter, the bill requires all local ad valorem taxing authorities except school districts to set millage rates in accordance with the rolled-back rate, adjusted by the annual growth of Florida personal income. A local governing authority may override this cap requirement as set forth in Section 5 on page 13.

2. The Constitutional Component - Long-term Reform

The constitutional amendment cures the inequities in the property tax system by transforming Save Our Homes through a new "super" homestead exemption. The new exemption covers 75% of the first $200,000 of homestead value and 15% of the next $300,000, with all homesteads receiving at least a $50,000 exemption. Current homestead owners will be given a choice as to whether to keep their benefits and assessment cap under Save Our Homes or to use the new super exemption. The bill also authorizes a $25,000 Tangible Personal Property exemption and allows targeted relief for affordable housing, low-income seniors, and working waterfronts. This component offers $16 billion of tax relief.

3. The Special Election

This bill authorizes a special election for #2 above - the Constitutional Component. Voters will have the opportunity to adopt the proposed constitutional amendment during the presidential preference primary on January 29, 2008. If voters approve the amendment, it will lower property tax bills in 2008.

We hope this update helps bring you up to speed. Log on anytime to our website for the latest in real estate updates and trends.

Source: Pinellas Realtor Organization

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June 1, 2007

At long last, the insurance crisis is stabilizing. The legislature froze the state run Citizens Property Insurance rates for two years which will cause others to lower rates. That’s a start.

Next, the tax crisis will be addressed at the legislature’s June special session. This is a complex issue and deserving of such attention. Currently, there are three major proposals on the table, one by the House, the Senate, and our new Governor, Charlie Crist. Others are percolating; look for more. While no plan will bring us back to the good ole days, Florida will be in better shape on the other side of this special session. Taxes will be less; it’s simply a matter of degree. The many buyers sitting on the sidelines awaiting concrete resolution of both these huge issues will then finally jump back into the market and begin buying, again. We’re half way there.

Opportunity knocks! This moment is a rare window and an excellent time to explore options. Many great values await the astute buyer before things completely resolve and a more balanced market returns. A little history: Prior to 2000, real estate sales nationally averaged around 3.5 million units per year. Five record years in a row culminated in property sales topping 7 million in 2005. The “slow” market of 2006 very quietly became the third highest year on record with 6.3 million units sold. Oddly, the news media made little of this fact. The market does, however, feel different because of the high record number of listings available. This classic supply/demand scenario creates longer Days-on-the-Market, and a softening of prices, but there is no bubble-a-bursting, rather it’s a needed pause, breather, correction. And, with 600-700 people moving to Florida daily, a more balanced and stronger market isn't far off.

You may access the same MLS as the local real estate agents right here on our site. Just click Search The MLS link in the blue on the left side of our site area below the words HALL of FAME. Only real-time Active Listings appear. If you prefer, we can also e-mail you what is currently on the market. And, check out Real Estate News updated daily, mortgage calculator, free Buyer/Seller Tips, and more. For further information or clarification, just call or e-mail us, your real estate consultants.

Until next time…happy real estating!

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Source: Pinellas Realtor Organization

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Predictions for 2007

Top 10 Predictions for Home Buyers & Sellers in 2007

From Elizabeth Weintraub,
Your Guide to Home Buying / Selling.

What Will Happen to the Real Estate Market in 2007?

Everybody wants to know where real estate is headed in 2007. Will prices continue to fall as they have in most areas of the country or will the American market rebound? Will interest rates remain stable? Will 2007 be a good time to buy or sell real estate or should we all head down to Mexico instead and check out Donald Trump's Baja resort south of Tijuana? Based on current market forecasts and real estate economic facts and trends of 2006, here is my professional home buying and selling prediction for next year.

(1) More Single Women Will Buy Homes Than Ever Before
Single women already make up a larger percentage of home buyers year after year. More single women are saying "no" to marriage but "yes" to a mortgage. They are trading Prince Charming for walk-in closets, underground parking or a garage, and tax deductions.

(2) Home Prices Will Remain Soft
Buyers will wonder if they should get off the fence and buy now or if they should wait. Across most of America, there are no indications that we'll see double-digit appreciation for a while and, in fact, if prices haven't fallen in your neighborhood yet, they most likely will in 2007.

(3) Agents Will Negotiate Record Numbers of Counter Offers
Finding a real estate agent who will negotiate for you as a seller or a buyer is going to be more important in 2007 than it has been in previous years. Sellers will not accept offers as written and will issue a counter. Buyers will not accept the seller's first counter and will issue a counter of their own. It will not be unusual to see five or more counters per transaction before an agreement is reached.

(4) Buyers Will Pass By Overpriced Homes
Buyers are becoming more educated. They know when the price is right, and overpriced homes will be scratched off their list of possible homes to consider. Buyers view sellers with overpriced listings as inflexible and not serious about selling. With large numbers of well priced homes available to them, buyers won't waste time on sellers who refuse to be reasonable about pricing.

(5) Buyers Will Demand Upscale Features
As more inventory comes on the market, buyers will have more to choose from before making an offer and will gravitate toward homes that require no updating or costly remodels. Buyers will expect homes to be turnkey and ready to occupy. Kitchen and bathroom remodels will fetch top dollar over homes without updates.

(6) Sellers Will Hire Home Stagers
Some sellers will be lucky and find a real estate agent who can offer home staging services, but many sellers, to be competitive among other listings, will hire a professional stager before putting their home on the market. Furniture rental companies will set up accounts offering 30- to 90-day financing at zero interest and no payments to accommodate home sellers who want to pay staging fees at closing and not upfront.

(7) Agents Will Take Overpriced Listings
Just because the market has changed is no reason for agents to wise up and stop taking overpriced listings or to stop hurting their seller's Virtual Tours Will Gain Popularity
Online listings without virtual tours will be passed over. Virtual tours will gain popularity because buyers will demand them. Like the old MLS books without a photo, an online listing without a virtual tour will be a non-entity and ignored. In addition, buyers will want audio with the visual.

(9) More than 50% of Listings Will Feature a Price Reduction Within 30 days
Sellers can do everything else right but fail miserably if the home is priced too high. The number one reason why properties don't sell is price. Anything will sell for the right price. The first trick is to figure out what that price should be before putting your home on the market. The second trick is to figure out when to reduce the price.

(10) Buyers Will Be More Selective When Choosing an Agent
Choosing the right agent is the single most important factor when buying or selling real estate. However some people make the mistake of choosing a DNA agent (family related) or a neighbor, without ever thinking about the main reason to hire an agent or how to go about determining the fit for themselves. As appreciation slows, sellers and buyers alike will be more discriminating and ask the tough questions to further protect their hard-earned dollars.